The 365-page report, which was written by budget office director Gail Vizzini, projects sales tax growth will have declined by 8.6 percent by the end of 2009 as opposed to the 6 percent Mr. Levy forecasted in his $2.6 billion budget. In 2010, Ms. Vizzini's report suggests, there will be an increase in sales tax revenue by 2.75 percent as compared to the 5 percent projected by Mr. Levy.
Based on Ms. Vizzini's projections, the budget will be short by $86 million over the 2009-2010 period. Should the projected revenue not materialize, according to Ms. Vizzini, the Legislature may have to declare a midyear shortfall and make arrangements by procuring other forms of revenue and/or reducing expenditures.
Ms. Vizzini said that while her office does think the economy will recover, she said there are still questions about when consumer spending will increase.
"I think we have a different view in terms of the timing," Ms. Vizzini said.
But that's not the only item the Legislature must carefully weigh this budget season.
The Legislature has also been advised to review concerns over public safety. County police staffing levels are at their lowest since 2000, according to the report. And 60 police officer positions are slated to be abolished. Mr. Levy and the Suffolk Police Benevolent Association union have not yet ratified a $12 million concession agreement that would bar those layoffs.
In addition, Ms. Vizzini explained, there is no provision for a new class of recruits to make up for the number of retirements that has occurred since the 2007 class. Cost projections to hire two more classes of 40 recruits apiece has been added to the report in order to help members of the Legislature decide upon their amendments. Forty new Corrections Officers positions have also been projected because they will be needed to ensure the Sheriff's Department meets state requirements when the new jail in Yaphank goes online, she said.
Connie Corso, deputy county executive for finance, said she did not believe Mr. Levy's numbers are a leap of faith.
"We really do feel like we are going to see growth," Ms. Corso said, adding that the projections for 2010 are still going to be less than the numbers from 2007 due to the overall economy.
"We are not saying we are going to be back to 2008-09 levels," she added.
Ms. Corso also pointed out the contradiction that while Ms. Vizzini's report projects a decline in sales tax, it also calls for "adding millions and millions of dollars" by adding positions and increasing overtime.
"You can't really have it both ways. If you feel there is a deficit, you should address that," Ms. Corso said.
Legis. Daniel Losquadro (R-Shoreham) expressed concern about the budget process and stated that it is the "most difficult" he has been involved with in his tenure, given the economic downturn and the need to maintain certain services.
"I think that the sales tax projected by [Mr. Levy] are probably a little bit overly optimistic," said Mr. Losquadro, a member of the budget working committee. "I think the [budget review office] might be a little pessimistic. I think it's really somewhere in the middle."
Mr. Losquadro said he would like to see Mr. Levy's office finalize the agreement with the PBA, so that legislators will have a better idea of what they are facing.
"We are really coming down to the wire," Mr. Losquadro said. "And we need both sides. It's not just the police; it's the county executive."
Legis. Ed Romaine (R-Center Moriches) said he and his fellow legislators might have some tough decisions to make, considering the economy and other mitigating factors such as the sales tax revenue.
"When the budget is done, I suspect that it will not be done because there will be some issues throughout 2010 that will need to be resolved," Mr. Romaine said.
peggy@northshoresun.com